VCA / MORPHY HARRAH AUCTION PRICE SPECULATION

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VCA / MORPHY HARRAH AUCTION PRICE SPECULATION

Postby Midcoast Vintage » Mon Sep 15, 2014 10:57 am

While there are several rare and great machines going across the block this coming weekend, as well as some "not so straight" ones,
i feel (my opinion only) the 5 most interesting machines are the DERBY HORSE RACE, CAILLE ROULETTE, MILLS DUPLEX, HOKE SNAKE, AND THE WATLING CAST IRON MACHINE.
Any one care to speculate as to what these machines will bring?
I will venture to say that we may see a few new price records established.
Regardless of what happens... I am sure this will be a very interesting auction.
Last edited by Midcoast Vintage on Mon Sep 15, 2014 5:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: VCA / MORPHY HARRAH AUCTION PRICE SPECULATION

Postby WikiSlots » Mon Sep 15, 2014 3:39 pm

I knew I wouldn't be able to afford the Watling cast iron! I'll have to bid anyway just to say I did.
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Re: VCA / MORPHY HARRAH AUCTION PRICE SPECULATION

Postby Dave » Sat Sep 20, 2014 7:53 am

Here are my guesses:

DERBY HORSE RACE, $28,000
CAILLE ROULETTE, $165,000
MILLS DUPLEX, $90,000
HOKE SNAKE, $33,000
WATLING CAST IRON MACHINE $6,500

Prices are hammer prices and don't include the juice.
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Re: VCA / MORPHY HARRAH AUCTION PRICE SPECULATION

Postby Midcoast Vintage » Sat Sep 20, 2014 12:27 pm

Dave wrote:Here are my guesses:

DERBY HORSE RACE, $28,000
CAILLE ROULETTE, $165,000
MILLS DUPLEX, $90,000
HOKE SNAKE, $33,000
WATLING CAST IRON MACHINE $6,500

Prices are hammer prices and don't include the juice.


here are my guesses:
DERBY HORSE RACE, $50,000.+
CAILLE ROULETTE, $195,000
MILLS DUPLEX, $75,000
HOKE SNAKE, $45,000
WATLING CAST IRON MACHINE $9,500

Prices are hammer prices and don't include the juice.

Anyone else care to venture a guess?
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Re: VCA / MORPHY HARRAH AUCTION PRICE SPECULATION

Postby Dave » Sat Sep 20, 2014 5:50 pm

Midcoast Vintage wrote:
Dave wrote:Here are my guesses:

DERBY HORSE RACE, $28,000
CAILLE ROULETTE, $165,000
MILLS DUPLEX, $90,000
HOKE SNAKE, $33,000
WATLING CAST IRON MACHINE $6,500

Prices are hammer prices and don't include the juice.


here are my guesses:
DERBY HORSE RACE, $50,000.+
CAILLE ROULETTE, $195,000
MILLS DUPLEX, $75,000
HOKE SNAKE, $45,000
WATLING CAST IRON MACHINE $9,500

Prices are hammer prices and don't include the juice.

Anyone else care to venture a guess?


I think I win :D

Here are the hammer prices:

Derby: $30,000 ( I was off by $2,000)
Caille Roulette: $178,000 (I was off by $13,000)
Mills Duplex: $90,000 (I nailed this one exactly!!!)
Hoke Snake: $37,500 (I was off by $4,500)
Watling: $4,750 (I was off by $1,750).

In total, everything brought $340,250 and I predicted $322,500
Midcoast predicted $374,500

I was off by $17,750 and Midcoast was off by $34,250

Interesting that I was under and Midcoast was over.

So, what do I win?
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Re: VCA / MORPHY HARRAH AUCTION PRICE SPECULATION

Postby Midcoast Vintage » Sat Sep 20, 2014 6:31 pm

CONGRATULATIONS!
I am surprised at a few of the prices being that low.
especially the derby, hoke snake, and the watling, considering the rarity...yes, i am aware that the watling is a doctored machine, but... it is still an iron case machine, and, could be put back to stock.

Do you attribute the lower prices to the state of the economy, distrust in vca integrity, or, waning interest in the hobby due to so much fraud being out there with all the repro machines, or, any other reasons?
i appreciate your, and, any others who have opinions on this.
thanks in advance.
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Re: VCA / MORPHY HARRAH AUCTION PRICE SPECULATION

Postby Dave » Sun Sep 21, 2014 2:15 am

Actually, I thought the prices were pretty good for the good stuff.

Remember you have to add at least 18% to the hammer price.

If the buyer does not have a reseller license (and many don't) and is taking it with them then there is another 8% sales tax.

That is 26% juice (28% if paying by credit card).

If the buyer of the roulette is just paying 18% then that puts the price at $210,000.

The Hoke Snake comes in at a minimum of $44,000 (assuming just 18% juice)

The Duplex comes in at $106,000.

The hammer price on the last two Duplex's that sold were $85K and $70K and the juice was just 10%.

The last Caille Roulette that sold at auction (10/9/2010) went for $145,000 (plus 10%). That was a steal in my opinion. I was not at that auction so maybe it had issues. The one before that went for $210K plus 10%.

I heard one sold earlier this year in a private transaction for $225,000

Regarding the Hoke Snake. Hard to find this machine. This is the only one that has gone to auction but what I have heard is that previous sales were no where near $44,000

Regarding the Midget Derby. They had a placard stating the machine was 1907. In my opinion mid 1930s to late 1940s is more likely. All of the castings were aluminum. That fact alone puts it in the 1920s. In addition, the machine did not work all that well. I saw it being demonstrated to one potential buyer. The coin head kept jamming and it looked like a pretty stupid design. I think the machine will be always jamming because of the coin head design. Who wants a machine that is always jamming? The machine may be rare but since it is so rare there is zero previous sale history. If it were made by a known manufacturer and really in the 1907 era I think it would have brought a lot more money. Having a coin head that actually worked would have been a plus as well.

Don't forget, buyers are paying almost double the juice as they were just a few years ago. So, a machine can sell for almost 10% less at the hammer and still end up costing the buyer the same. The difference is that 10% no longer goes to the seller. Buyers are not stupid and higher juice will mean lower hammer price.

I am sure putting on an auction, like any business, has a lot of expenses associated with it. However, these high fees will probably result in more and more private transactions being done and auctions will be used for dealing with estates or machines with issues.

Trust is huge with an auction company. Buyers must feel confident that machines are represented accurately in the catalog. Especially bidders who are not present. If there is doubt then prices will suffer.

Good stuff almost always brings good money. Stuff with issues brings low money.

All the doubles brought low money. Much less than the catalog predicted. However, think about it. Two of the doubles had busted coin heads. Who is going to buy a double with a busted coin head? Probably someone who has the parts / skill (or knows someone) that can repair it. That fact alone reduces the number of buyers out there. In addition, once the machine has been repaired it will ALWAYS be a machine that was repaired.

The number of people out there who can afford an upright, much less a double, is limited. Having 3 doubles at one auction along with a dozen uprights has got to bring down the prices.

So you have a lot of supply with limited number of buyers. What does that equate to? Lower prices. It really isn't rocket science.

Regarding the reproductions, I like many people wish they didn't exist or if they did they were clearly identified as bring rubber (which is the main reason I founded COPS). However, that is not the world we live in. Greed will always be out there. I can't believe that the people making the fakes are really making that much money at it. Those made up Prospectors were probably pricey to make. I wonder how much the guy really cleared after he pays the auction fees and counts what he has into them. Is making a few hundred dollars really worth ripping off some potentially new collector? I guess it must be to him.

Nora Mead was at the auction and selling some of her books and giving away free issues of the 1981 January issue of Loose Change which talked about the Harrah collection. Interestingly, there was also an article by Joel Gilgoff. He talked about all the changes made to collecting antique slots. One of the things we was upset about is the number of fake War Eagles, Caste Fronts, etc. coming into the market. That was 33 years ago! It was a pretty interesting article.
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Re: VCA / MORPHY HARRAH AUCTION PRICE SPECULATION

Postby SLOT DYNASTY » Sun Sep 21, 2014 2:58 am

I attribute the low prices, (especially on the Victorian Uprights), to hub-bub that I have been hearing
in the past several months, from people being 'Fed Up' with the way that VCA has been conducting their
auctions. They have been getting progressively worse, with each new venture. Perhaps things will now
change for the better, with the new ownership. The main thing that always irritated me, was when a
well known collector, consigned a great amount of 'High Quality' machines, that were mixed in with all
the Repro & Fake Crap. One example - The Mel Getlan collection. I have known Mel for many years, and
was surprised that he didn't consign elsewhere, like Dan Morphy, Rich Penn, or James Julia. Grant you, I
do see occasional repro's in the other auctions, but the big difference with those, is they are usually noted
as to what they are, and you Don't See the Vegas Butchers Crap in those either.

I will assume that many of the very unusual notes, planted in the Upright descriptions, about the recast,
and broken parts, were due to notes from Dave, who went over most of them pretty thoroughly, before
the auction. There are also many other issues that needed to be addressed, regarding the mechanisms,
that didn't come about, because the keys were not available.

Yes, many of the Victorian Upright prices were rather soft this time around. Some being attributed to
the mish-mosh of broken, switched, and incorrect castings. Some were pretty close to my original estimates,
and others were way off. The biggest shocker to me, was the "Midget Derby". I estimated it to bring between
$100,000.00 to $150,000.00 If I had known it was going for what it did, I would have been there in a flash, as
that is the only piece that had my interest. I first saw that machine, in Harrah's Pony Express Museum, back in
the late 60's, and took pics of it. After the two early Pony Express auctions, it had been stashed in the main
warehouse, where many of his extra cars were, then later moved again, to 'who-knows-where'. I should have
pursued it then, but it had vanished from my memory, (which was much better then, than now)! It eventually
was moved to one of the corporate offices, where it sat, until this collection was reunited for auction. In those
early years, Dick Bueschel, and I were researching all we could, to come up with anything on this machine, to
no avail. No ads, no pics, no maker. At least the machine had a name, but that didn't bring any clues either. The
only guess we had, was that it may be Watling. It is quite possibly a prototype, but who knows. When Dave had
a chance to check the mechanism, he couldn't find any stamped-in, or cast letters or numbers, to indicate a
clue, as to who the builder was. I am hoping that whoever purchased this machine, (and I have a guess, between
two persons), that they contact me with any info, that might show-up, after going completely through it.
Thank you, Bill
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Re: VCA / MORPHY HARRAH AUCTION PRICE SPECULATION

Postby Midcoast Vintage » Sun Sep 21, 2014 12:48 pm

THANKS to dave, and, to bill for their insight into this.
I am still very surprised at the low price for the the derby, and the hoke.
bill and i had had a discussion a couple months ago, regarding what we thought some of the machines would bring, and both speculated that the derby had the possibility of bringing FAR more than it did.
even with the juice, and the tax, i think these 2 machines went for far less than their value considering their rarity and historic value.
the derby, while not running well, could possibly tuned up by a competent mechanic, and, be made to function properly.
regardless, these, and several of the other rarities, will most likely go into collections for many years, and not be available again for many years to come.
congratulations to the winners.
Last edited by Midcoast Vintage on Mon Sep 22, 2014 3:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: VCA / MORPHY HARRAH AUCTION PRICE SPECULATION

Postby Dave » Sun Sep 21, 2014 10:45 pm

SLOT DYNASTY wrote:...

I will assume that many of the very unusual notes, planted in the Upright descriptions, about the recast,
and broken parts, were due to notes from Dave, who went over most of them pretty thoroughly, before
the auction. There are also many other issues that needed to be addressed, regarding the mechanisms,
that didn't come about, because the keys were not available.

....


Thanks, but I don't think what I said or posted had any bearing on what was put in the catalog.

They had two extremely knowledgable people look and work on the machines after they got them opened up. These folks have a LOT more knowledge than I do when it comes to uprights.

Dave
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